Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiİyi kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 93%
Tahminciler
27
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
58 dakika önce güncellendi
Gecikmeli19 Eki 23 15:51 UTC2 Oca 00 02:59 UTC
Trendler
Kurallar
Resolves at close date to YES if the mainstream belief among US citizens is that 9/11 was an inside job, at least partially planned and executed by high officers inside the US government.
- If it continues to be a fringe conspiracy theory, resolves to NO.
- Whoever resolves this market should take these into account:
- - Polls that are not obviously biased crossing the 50% threshold - Official statements from the government - Mainstream media, books, Wikipedia if that exists, citing inside-job as the most likely theory - General perceived sentiment
- These are all proxies for "if we average the subjective belief of all US citizens, P(inside job) > 50%"
