Outcome of the 2026 US Midterm election
3.3 puan (24s)One-OffPolitikaSeçimABD Siyaseti2026 ABD Ara Seçimleri3ay
Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiİyi kalibreGüncel topluluk tahmini
Democrats control Congress 72.3%+3.3pt4 seçenek arasında lider
Democrats control Congress 72.3%+3.3ptTahminciler
100
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multiple choice
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7g Değişim
+10.4 pts
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2 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis4 Tem 23 14:47 UTC31 Oca 27 23:59 UTC
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If the filibuster is ended by the midterms, what will the outcome of the 2026 US House and Senate elections be?
Manifold MarketsWhat will happen in the 2026 US Midterm Elections (add your own!)
Manifold MarketsWill there be a significant polling error at the 2026 US midterm elections?
Manifold MarketsWill the 2026 US Midterm Elections generally be considered free and fair?
Manifold MarketsWill any US Federal or Statewide Midterm Election be within 0.01%?
PolymarketHow many House seats will Republicans win in the 2026 midterm election?
PredictItKurallar
Update 2025-07-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution will be based on the Wikipedia page for the United States Congress: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Congress.
- Independents will be counted based on which party they caucus with.
- A tie in the Senate will be resolved by the Vice President's party.
- Update 2025-11-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Republican senators vote with the Democratic bloc more than 50% of the time, they will be counted as caucusing with Democrats and considered under Democratic control.
- While Wikipedia will be the primary source, the creator will use their judgment if facts substantially diverge from Wikipedia's assessment of "control".
- Update 2025-11-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve immediately after the election is finalized based on Wikipedia's assessment of control at that time.
