Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 87.8%
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9
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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9 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis30 Mar 26 02:34 UTC30 Mar 29 02:32 UTC
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İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be mentioned or quoted in the White House briefing room within 5 years?
Manifold MarketsWill the first crewed Starship to Mars launch within 4 years as Elon Musk says?
Manifold MarketsWill the United States no longer be a democracy within 5 years?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketKurallar
Marketing this claim: https://x.com/i/status/2038360800004559183
- will create market criteria further on
- Elon claims that there will probably be more great Optimus surgeons within three years AT SCALE than the total number of human surgeons on Earth.
- If this is even remotely true then resolving this YES or NO should be trivially easy.
- If the argument is even close whether Optimus is better than humans, even for a single construction, then I moderatelyy lean toward a NO resolution.
Açık piyasalar
AIKALSHIOpen Source market share on Sep 14th
- Above 67.5%99%
- Above 70%+22.0pt99%
- Above 72.5%96%
+6 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺3,6 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺3,6 Mn
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027-3.0pt89%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-5.0pt86%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-6.0pt81%
+9 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+0.6pt68.3%
- ChatGPT-0.5pt16.4%
- Gemini+0.1pt6.7%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺535 Mn
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 15,-0.5pt85%
- December 31,-3.5pt84%
- November 30,-2.0pt76%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETWill any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?
- 1510+45.5pt100%
- 1520-14.3pt77%
- 1530-0.1pt4%
+2 daha fazla sonuç
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude89.9%
- Gemini2.8%
- ChatGPT1.8%
+6 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺2 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺2 Mn
- Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- OpenAI market share this week
- AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
Sık sorulan sorular
- (Musk Prediction) Will Optimus Be the World's Best Surgeon Within 3 years? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 15 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla No için 88% fiyatlıyor.
- (Musk Prediction) Will Optimus Be the World's Best Surgeon Within 3 years? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- (Musk Prediction) Will Optimus Be the World's Best Surgeon Within 3 years? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 30 Mart 2029.
- (Musk Prediction) Will Optimus Be the World's Best Surgeon Within 3 years? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Marketing this claim: https://x.com/i/status/2038360800004559183