Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahmini
Hayır 56.3%
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51
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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16 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis29 Ağu 23 03:29 UTC2 Oca 27 07:59 UTC
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İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be on the Joe Rogan Experience podcast before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsIs Conradin an alternate handle for Eliezer Yudkowsky?
Manifold MarketsIs Syzygy on the Glowfic constellation an alternate account of Eliezer Yudkowsky?
Manifold MarketsElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
PolymarketWill Florida receive more visitors in 2026 than in 2025?
KalshiWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
KalshiKurallar
The Waves Arisen is a Naruto fanfic with rationalist themes: https://wertifloke.wordpress.com/2015/01/25/chapter-1/
- There is sometimes speculation about whether the author Wertifloke is a pseudonym of noted rationalist fanfic author Eliezer Yudkowsky.
- Let's bet on it!
- This market is conditional on strong evidence coming out in favor of one outcome or the other.
- This market will trust Eliezer Yudkowsky's honor not to lie, and if he makes a relevant joke, to admit that it was a joke when asked.
- Likewise it will trust the word of others with a strong record of commitment to the truth.
Açık piyasalar
Society & CulturePOLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
- 40-64-8.5pt44.4%
- 65-89-12.5pt28.3%
- <40-18.5pt14.1%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺1,6 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺1,6 Mn
KALSHIWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
- No62%
- Yes-52.0pt38%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺227,9 B
- 24s Hacim
- ₺173,3 B
KALSHIWill Florida receive more visitors in 2026 than in 2025?
- No82%
- Yes+4.0pt18%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺1 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺58,3 B
KALSHIWill Yellowstone record over 5 million recreation visits in 2026?
- No95%
- Yes-6.0pt5%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺864,9 B
- 24s Hacim
- ₺53,6 B
KALSHIHarry Kane Knighted in 2026
- No86%
- Yes14%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺853,9 B
- 24s Hacim
- ₺14,8 B
KALSHIUS test scores in Math in 2026?
- No significant difference+8.0pt39%
- Significant decrease-7.0pt34%
- Significant increase-15.4pt10%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺2,8 Mn
- Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
- Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?
- Is Earth flat?
- Will California start laying high-speed rail track in 2026?
- US test scores in Reading in 2026?
- Major news story in Sep 2026?
- Will UCLA out-of-state tuition exceed $55,000 in 2026?
- Which colleges will see their ranking drop this year?
- Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?
- Who will be in the US News top 20 universities?
- Will UCLA out-of-state tuition exceed $53,000 in 2026?
Sık sorulan sorular
- Is Eliezer Yudkowsky the author of The Waves Arisen? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla No için 56% fiyatlıyor.
- Is Eliezer Yudkowsky the author of The Waves Arisen? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Is Eliezer Yudkowsky the author of The Waves Arisen? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 2 Ocak 2027.
- Is Eliezer Yudkowsky the author of The Waves Arisen? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: The Waves Arisen is a Naruto fanfic with rationalist themes: https://wertifloke.wordpress.com/2015/01/25/chapter-1/