Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahmini
Other 58%5 seçenek arasında lider
Other 58%Tahminciler
40
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
0.0 pts
Piyasa verileri
5 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis8 Oca 24 12:53 UTC31 Ara 34 22:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
When will Tesla start delivering cars with their AI5 computer onboard?
Manifold MarketsWill Tesla start selling a vehicle using a new "AI 5" computer by the end of Q3 2027?
Manifold MarketsCXMT starts mass production of HBM3 in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill any state or company implement mass production of living humans by 2200?
Manifold MarketsBitcoin price at the end of 2026
KalshiElon Musk # tweets October 23 - October 30, 2026?
PolymarketKurallar
Resolution Clarifications:
- Product rename does not change the outcome, i.e. the bot's name does not need to be "Optimus" for a positive resolution of a specific year
- "Other" = Cancellation of the Optimus Program, Insolvency, Significant Change of Design (Humanoid -> 4-legged does not count, humanoid -> 6DoF Arm counts as "Other")
- Mass production indicators:
- first deliveries
- explicit communication of mass production start