If Manifold begins allowing real-money withdrawals, will its accuracy improve?
One-OffKripto BorsalarıTeknoloji13y
Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahmini
Evet 63.6%
Evet 63.6%Tahminciler
48
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
2 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis17 Kas 22 17:04 UTC1 Oca 40 05:00 UTC
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Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
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I'll allow any reasonable type of scoring to demonstrate this, such as the ones described here.
- (With appropriate corrections for multiple-comparisons bias if someone tries a bunch of different metrics.)
- Proving causality would be next-to-impossible for something like this, so I'm only going to require that there be enough of a difference between the score before the change and the score afterwards that it seems plausible this was the cause.
