Güncel topluluk tahmini
Hayır 65.3%
Tahminciler
5
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
14 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis4 Nis 26 12:21 UTC15 Ağu 29 22:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
If this person is the leader of the Labour Party going into the next UK election after 2024, will the PM be Labour?
Manifold MarketsIf this party wins in Gorton and Denton, will the PM after the next general election be Labour?
Manifold MarketsIf Reform's change in council seats in the local elections is this, will there be a general election in 2026 or 2027?
Manifold MarketsHolborn and St Pancras By-Election - Labour to Win
SmarketsNZ Election: Labour Party # of seats?
PolymarketNZ election: Labour v National (% of Party List Vote)
PolymarketKurallar
The 2026 local elections are upcoming! ~5000 councillors in local councils are going to be up for election, 2000 of whom are currently members of the Labour Party.
- It's possible that this will be an indicator of whether the Labour Party is actually doing okay, or if they need to try a different strategy.
- The reason for the condition is to try to make the market causal on Starmer leaving, by screening off the evidential correlation that Starmer is more likely to stay on if Labour is doing well.
- The complement conditional on Starmer staying is
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/Tetraspace/if-labour-loses-1000-council-seats-gPUU59gIC5)This resolves N/A if Labour doesn't lose over 1000 council seats (either it loses less than 1000 seats, or it gains seats), or if Starmer doesn't leave in 2026.
Açık piyasalar
PoliticsPOLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+1.9pt38.4%
- Édouard Philippe+0.5pt30.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon12.1%
+38 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺6,3 Mr
- 24s Hacim
- ₺61,6 Mn
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Flávio Bolsonaro+3.7pt49.5%
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-5.0pt48.5%
- Renan Santos-0.1pt2%
+16 daha fazla sonuç
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+1.0pt16.8%
- Jon Ossoff-1.0pt16.8%
- Gavin Newsom13.7%
+45 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺10,4 Mr
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party+1.0pt84.2%
- Republican Party15.8%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺1,4 Mr
- 24s Hacim
- ₺49,2 Mn
KALSHIMaine Senate winner?
- Troy Jackson-1.0pt67.3%
- Susan Collins+2.0pt32.7%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺257,3 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺29,7 Mn
KALSHIOhio Senate winner?
- Sherrod Brown-2.0pt50.5%
- Jon Husted+1.0pt49.5%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺148,4 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺20,1 Mn
- 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Iowa Senate winner?
- Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Texas Senate winner?
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- TX-15 House winner?
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- What will Trump say this week?
Sık sorulan sorular
- If Labour loses >1000 council seats & Starmer leaves as PM in 2026, will PM after next election be Labour? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 10 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla No için 65% fiyatlıyor.
- If Labour loses >1000 council seats & Starmer leaves as PM in 2026, will PM after next election be Labour? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- If Labour loses >1000 council seats & Starmer leaves as PM in 2026, will PM after next election be Labour? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 15 Ağustos 2029.
- If Labour loses >1000 council seats & Starmer leaves as PM in 2026, will PM after next election be Labour? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: The 2026 local elections are upcoming! ~5000 councillors in local councils are going to be up for election, 2000 of whom are currently members of the Labour Party.