Güncel topluluk tahmini
Sam Altman 80%17 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler
15
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
0.0 pts
Piyasa verileri
6 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis5 Eki 24 04:15 UTC2 Oca 34 07:59 UTC
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Kurallar
This market resolves based on the characters in the first movie to win an Oscar which depicts real-life settings and events of modern AI development.
- For each real-world person under this question, resolve YES if they, as a character (not necessarily a cameo), say more than one word during the movie, are audibly mentioned, or are visually depicted for more than 20 seconds in total.
- If no qualifying movie about AI has won an Oscar before 2033, all answers resolve NO.
- If an actor in the movie is not playing themselves, resolves YES for the character they depict rather than the actor.
- A significant portion of the movie (>30% of runtime) must be set in the 2020s decade.
- A qualifying movie does not need to be an entirely faithful depiction of historical events as long as the backdrop, setting, and characters are largely drawn from true history.
Açık piyasalar
AI
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+9.0pt56.9%
- 2027+3.5pt33%
- 2026+4.0pt10.1%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺12,6 Mn
- 24s Hacim
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KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-5.0pt69%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max-3.0pt3%
+3 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+2.5pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-0.5pt84%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+2.1pt59.6%
- ChatGPT-0.4pt25%
- Grok+0.6pt7.7%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺512,2 Mn
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-5.5pt66%
- 1490+-5.0pt56%
- 1500+-0.5pt28%
+2 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 daha fazla sonuç
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Best AI in Sep 2026?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
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- Most popular AI this week
Sık sorulan sorular
- Who will be portrayed in the first Oscar-winning movie about real-life AI released before 2034? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla Sam Altman için 80% fiyatlıyor.
- Who will be portrayed in the first Oscar-winning movie about real-life AI released before 2034? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Who will be portrayed in the first Oscar-winning movie about real-life AI released before 2034? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 2 Ocak 2034.
- Who will be portrayed in the first Oscar-winning movie about real-life AI released before 2034? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: This market resolves based on the characters in the first movie to win an Oscar which depicts real-life settings and events of modern AI development.