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26 Eki 2026 14:52 UTC itibarıyla veriler · politika pm-quality-4
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Gecikmeli2 Haz 24 20:04 UTC2 Tem 27 05:59 UTC
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Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
How many people will die of extreme heat in Arizona in 2033?
Manifold MarketsWill at least 12% of the population of Phoenix, Arizona die of extreme heat in the 2030s ?
Manifold MarketsWill 2,500+ people die of heat in Texas in a single week before 2032?
Manifold MarketsWill 10,000+ people die of heat in Texas in a single week before 2032?
Manifold MarketsKurallar
This is an attempt to gauge whether Arizona will become uninhabitable due to climate change within the next decade, as predicted by this tweet:
- [tweet]Resolution will be based on my best estimate from credible reporting, Wikipedia articles, etc. If multiple credible sources are available, I'll resolve based on the geometric mean of available numbers.
- I'll add more answers if trading prices indicate that's appropriate.
- Ditto creating more comparable questions for different dates.
- See also: @/EvanDaniel/how-many-people-will-die-of-extreme
