Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreVeri kalitesi uyarısıKaynak verileri bozulmuş
25 Eki 2026 20:50 UTC itibarıyla veriler · politika pm-quality-4
Güncel topluluk tahminiHayır 62.5%
Tahminciler
1
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
2 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis11 Haz 24 07:13 UTC2 Oca 35 04:59 UTC
Trendler
Kurallar
If a vaccine for HIV is approved by the FDA and available for commercial use before January 1st 2035 midnight Eastern Time, this market will resolve to yes.
- Emergency Use Authorization will not be sufficient to resolve this market to yes, only full approval.
- Additionally, the vaccine must be released to the public and commercially available to certain members of the population.
- It need not be accessible to everyone, a release limited to certain age groups or otherwise restricted is still sufficient.
- A vaccine for either the treatment or prevention of HIV is sufficient.
- This means that either a vaccine treating a patient who has already contracted HIV, or a vaccine designed to prevent one from contracting HIV in the first place will both be sufficient to resolve this market.
