Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 91.4%
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13
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Piyasa verileri
15 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis24 Haz 23 17:57 UTC2 Oca 29 04:59 UTC
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İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Does an AI disaster kill at least 10,000 people before 2029?
Manifold MarketsDoes an AI disaster kill at least 100,000,000 people before 2029?
Manifold MarketsDoes an AI disaster kill at least 100,000 people before 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketKurallar
-"Does": the main cause must have been the AI, not external circumstance.
- -"an": must be a single event (we are not combining unrelated smaller disasters).
- -"AI": must be a system (or multiple systems) that relied on artificial intelligence for its decisions.
- -"disaster": the AI must've done something that most smart people would say is malicious, reckless, or poor judgement.
- Unless the AI was directly following orders by a human who we agree was authorized to give those orders, then that doesn't count.
- -"kill": they must have deceased, not merely been injured/poisoned/etc.
Açık piyasalar
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+9.0pt56.9%
- 2027+3.5pt33%
- 2026+4.0pt10.1%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺12,6 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺9 Mn
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-5.0pt69%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max-3.0pt3%
+3 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+2.5pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-0.5pt84%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+2.1pt59.6%
- ChatGPT-0.4pt25%
- Grok+0.6pt7.7%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺512,2 Mn
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-5.5pt66%
- 1490+-5.0pt56%
- 1500+-0.5pt28%
+2 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 daha fazla sonuç
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Best AI in Sep 2026?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on?
- Most popular AI this week
Sık sorulan sorular
- Does an AI disaster kill at least 10,000,000 people before 2029? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla No için 91% fiyatlıyor.
- Does an AI disaster kill at least 10,000,000 people before 2029? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Does an AI disaster kill at least 10,000,000 people before 2029? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 2 Ocak 2029.
- Does an AI disaster kill at least 10,000,000 people before 2029? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: -"Does": the main cause must have been the AI, not external circumstance.