What stories/media will have a counterfactually positive impact on me in the next month? (Read description)
TeknolojiOne-Off1gManifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminisignalis 78.7%34 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler
7
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
0.0 pts
Piyasa verileri
17 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis10 Ağu 26 16:38 UTC10 Eyl 26 16:38 UTC
Trendler
Kurallar
Resolves to my subjective probability of it providing net benefit to my overall goals in expectation in the counterfactual to [the counterfactual where i don't experience it] where the answer is watched at a random time during times where i would have counterfactually have chosen to experience similar media after resolution time with a uniform distribution between Aug 10 and Sep 8 inclusive.
- The duration is important here, since the counterfactual would fill up the time with other stories of the same duration.
- I estimate sum of (probabilities × time spent) = 50-150 hours (total amount of time i will likely spend on these).
- The similar clause is because different times call for different stories.
- Resolution will occur at the resolution date.
- I will N/A all answers that I do not experience before the resolution date.
Açık piyasalar
Tech
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,750 or above99%
- $76,500 or above99%
- $76,250 or above99%
+77 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺77,5 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺76,3 Mn
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°-2.0pt28.7%
- 90° or above+11.0pt26.7%
- 86° to 87°-10.0pt25.7%
+3 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+9.0pt31.7%
- 160-179-2.0pt21.1%
- 200-219+5.0pt21.1%
+23 daha fazla sonuç
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- New Orleans+36.0pt99%
- Houston+69.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+6.0pt99%
+19 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺14,6 Mn
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 40-64+6.0pt52%
- 65-89+24.5pt45.1%
- 90-114-2.5pt2.9%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
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- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- When will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Highest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- Which company has the best AI model end of September?
- Best AI at the end of 2026?
- ETH price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Highest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- When will Apple Inc. release the iPhone 18 Pro?
- Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by which date?
- Next James Bond actor?
Sık sorulan sorular
- What stories/media will have a counterfactually positive impact on me in the next month? (Read description) için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla signalis için 79% fiyatlıyor.
- What stories/media will have a counterfactually positive impact on me in the next month? (Read description) ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- What stories/media will have a counterfactually positive impact on me in the next month? (Read description) için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 10 Eylül 2026.
- What stories/media will have a counterfactually positive impact on me in the next month? (Read description) nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Resolves to my subjective probability of it providing net benefit to my overall goals in expectation in the counterfactual to [the counterfactual where i don't experience it] where the answer is watched at a random time during times where i would have counterfactually have chosen to experience similar media after resolution time with a uniform distribution between Aug 10 and Sep 8 inclusive.