Conditional on Trump getting elected, how will the US democracy index have changed by the end of his term.
Politika2y
Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiİyi kalibreGüncel topluluk tahmini
Decrease drastically (>= 0.68 && <= 0.72) 35.6%6 seçenek arasında lider
Decrease drastically (>= 0.68 && <= 0.72) 35.6%Tahminciler
27
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
0.0 pts
Piyasa verileri
58 dakika önce güncellendi
Gecikmeli9 Eki 24 21:21 UTC31 Mar 29 21:59 UTC
Trendler
Kurallar
WIll resolve based on the Electoral Deomcracy Index from our world in data which is based on the V-Dem report.
- 2023 the US got 0.85.
- Will resolve to NA if trump is not elected in 2024 (all mana returned).
- Otherwise, will resolve once the data for 2028 is released (probably march 2029).
- https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/democracy?tab=chart&time=1975..latest&showSelectionOnlyInTable=1&country=~USA&Dataset=Varieties+of+Democracy&Metric=Electoral+democracy&Sub-metric=Main+index
- For reference the following indexes were given in 2023.
