Güncel topluluk tahmini
Kamala Harris 60.1%
Tahminciler
19
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
-3.4 pts
Piyasa verileri
8 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis11 Tem 24 22:29 UTC7 Kas 28 05:59 UTC
Trendler
60.1%
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will the 2028 Democratic Candidate for President win Pennsylvania?
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Each choice should be read as "if X is the 2024 nominee, the Democratic party's chances of winning the 2028 presidential election are Y%", where X is the choice text and Y is the choice probability.
- Conditional will be set by whoever comes out of the 2024 Democratic convention (nominally ending August 22) as the official nominee of that party.
- At that point I will N/A all other options and the nominee's option will remain open until market closes right before the 2028 election.
- Should the party's nominee change after the convention for any reason, that does not change the conditional (aka it is based on who they officially nominate, not who ends up running by the time November rolls around).
- I will not resolve the conditional based on any early virtual roll call or whatnot.
- Conditional resolves after the actual convention regardless of what happens beforehand.
