Conditional on Trump being elected president in 2024, will a Republican also be elected in 2028?
PolitikaOne-OffABD SiyasetiSeçim2y
Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 64%
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23
Soru türü
binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Tahmin
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4 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis10 Oca 24 21:01 UTC16 Kas 28 05:59 UTC
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Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
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FutuurKurallar
If Trump wins the election in 2024, his record in office could affect the results of 2028, either by causing people to sour on the Republican Party, or convincing more people to vote for the Republican Party after a successful term.
- Therefore, the probability here should not necessarily be the same as @/PlasmaBallin/will-a-republican-be-elected-presid
- No matter who wins the 2024 election, the 2028 election is likely to have no incumbent, since either Joe Biden or Donald Trump would be prevented from running for reelection by term limits.
- Therefore, the difference between this market and the unconditional version can be compared to the difference between @/PlasmaBallin/conditional-on-a-biden-being-electe and @/PlasmaBallin/will-a-democrat-be-elected-presiden, since neither one is influenced by an incumbency advantage or disadvantage - both are purely measures of whether a certain candidate's term will strengthen or weaken the chances of their party's next nominee.
