Conditional on a cyber incident causing $15B+ in US economic damage, what will be the primary target?
1.6 puan (24s)One-OffTeknolojiMakro ve Ekonomi3y
Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminicritical utilities (electric grid, water, oil/gas pipelines) 35.6%-1.6pt4 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler
1
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
-1.6 pts
Piyasa verileri
8 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis12 Ağu 26 12:27 UTC31 Ara 29 23:59 UTC
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Resolution criteria
- This market is conditional on a single cyber incident causing $15 billion (USD) or more in total economic damage to the United States.
- If no such incident occurs before December 31, 2030, this market will resolve to N/A. To resolve this market, the following criteria must be met:
- Damage Threshold: A single cyber incident (whether a malicious cyberattack or a systemic IT/software-induced failure) must result in an estimated $15B+ in U.S. economic damage.
- This figure will be determined based on official assessments from U.S. federal agencies (e.g., CISA, FBI, or DHS) or a consensus of reputable economic and cyber-risk modeling firms (e.g., Lloyd's, Swiss Re) reported by major financial news outlets (e.g., Bloomberg, Reuters, The Wall Street Journal).
