Güncel topluluk tahmini
Hayır 68.5%
Tahminciler
8
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
47 dakika önce güncellendi
Gecikmeli27 Ara 25 00:03 UTC31 Ara 26 23:59 UTC
Trendler
Kurallar
Resolution Criteria:
- This market resolves YES if, by December 31, 2026, the Chinese government (e.g., NDRC, MIIT, State Council, or other central authority) officially announces or implements a hard national ceiling on refined copper smelting/refining capacity or annual production output.
- This must be modeled after the aluminum sector's 45 million tonne annual capacity cap (introduced in 2017), meaning:
- An explicit numerical limit (e.g., X million tonnes per year) on total national capacity or output.
- Enforced via strict controls like "capacity replacement" rules (new capacity only if equal/old capacity is retired), bans on net new additions, or direct production quotas.
- YES examples:
