Arbitrage opportunity between Kalshi and Polymarket on Gavin Newsom as 2028 Democratic nominee disappears by:
PolitikaOne-OffUS PoliticsSeçim12ayManifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiSeptember 15, 2027 86.2%4 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler
12
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
+36.2 pts
Piyasa verileri
6 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis15 Eyl 26 19:37 UTC16 Eyl 27 23:59 UTC
Trendler
0%
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Who will become the next governor of California after Gavin Newsom?
Manifold MarketsWill Gavin Newsom ever become the Democratic nominee for president?
Manifold MarketsWill Gavin Newsom be the favorite for Democratic Nominee on Dec. 31, 2026? [Per Polymarket Data]
Manifold MarketsWill Gavin Newsom announce Presidential run by which date?
PolymarketWhen will Gavin Newsom announce his presidential candidacy?
KalshiGavin Newsom or his wife federally charged by December 31, 2026?
PolymarketKurallar
As of market creation, Gavin Newsom as Democratic nominee is trading for 18% on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028
- And 13% on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxpresnomd/democratic-primary-winner/kxpresnomd-28
- An option in this market resolves yes if the price differential between the two sites closes to 1% or less, by the date listed.
- If a price differential > 1% develops in the opposite direction between the two sites, that is also sufficient for resolution yes.
- If one option in this market resolves yes, all subsequent options will also resolve yes at that point in time.
- Time for resolution will be midnight in pacific time on the specified date (i.e. at the very beginning of the day, not the end).
Açık piyasalar
PoliticsPOLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-0.6pt18%
- Gavin Newsom+0.1pt16%
- Jon Ossoff16%
+48 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺62,6 Mr
- 24s Hacim
- ₺102,4 Mn
POLYMARKETVenezuela leader end of 2026?
- Nicolás Maduro-28.9pt53%
- Delcy Rodríguez+23.5pt39%
- No Head of State-0.1pt1%
+13 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance51%
- Marco Rubio+0.1pt16%
- Ron DeSantis3%
+39 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺34,5 Mr
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17.4%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+1.0pt16.3%
- Gavin Newsom-1.0pt13.3%
+45 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺10,8 Mr
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party+1.4pt91%
- Republican Party-0.6pt9%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺1,6 Mr
- 24s Hacim
- ₺23 Mn
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Democrats sweep59.6%
- D-House, R-Senate+1.0pt30.3%
- Republicans sweep-0.5pt9.1%
+1 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- What will Trump say this week?
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by which date?
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Next French Presidential Election
- Brazil Presidential Election
- Los Angeles Mayor winner?
Sık sorulan sorular
- Arbitrage opportunity between Kalshi and Polymarket on Gavin Newsom as 2028 Democratic nominee disappears by: için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 20 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla September 15, 2027 için 86% fiyatlıyor.
- Arbitrage opportunity between Kalshi and Polymarket on Gavin Newsom as 2028 Democratic nominee disappears by: ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Arbitrage opportunity between Kalshi and Polymarket on Gavin Newsom as 2028 Democratic nominee disappears by: için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 16 Eylül 2027.
- Arbitrage opportunity between Kalshi and Polymarket on Gavin Newsom as 2028 Democratic nominee disappears by: nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: As of market creation, Gavin Newsom as Democratic nominee is trading for 18% on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028