Will the U.S. and Iran hold a China-mediated meeting before Feb 1, 2027?
PolitikaOne-OffABD SiyasetiOrta DoğuÇin3ay
KalshiKullanılabilirliği kontrol etKYC gerekliDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiİyi kalibreSeçili emir defteri orta fiyatı
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Gecikmeli19 Eki 26 15:35 UTC1 Şub 27 04:59 UTC
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Uzlaşma kaynağı:The Washington PostFox NewsThe Wall Street JournalThe GuardianABCBloomberg NewsCBSSouth China Morning PostNBCthe Associated PressBBCAxiosCNNABC News AustraliaThe InformationSemaforMSNBCCBCReutersPoliticoThe New York Times
- Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify, unless the new article itself explicitly reaffirms the truth of the topic as of the publication date. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity. The meeting must be deliberately convened for diplomacy or negotiation, and each country must be represented by at least one senior official who actively participates in an official capacity. It need not produce an agreement, joint statement, or commitment to further talks. Only the part of a meeting held after Issuance counts; a meeting held entirely before Issuance does not qualify, even if reported afterward. A senior official is a head of state or government, vice president, foreign minister or other cabinet-rank minister, head of a national security council, presiding officer of a national legislature, special envoy, or anyone the head of state or government designates to conduct diplomatic negotiations on their behalf. Officials whose mandate is limited to technical, implementation, monitoring, staff-level, or preparatory discussions do not qualify. Qualifying officials include, without limitation, Donald Trump, JD Vance, Marco Rubio, Scott Bessent, Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner for the United States, and Mojtaba Khamenei, Masoud Pezeshkian, Abbas Araghchi, and Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf for Iran. The meeting may be direct, with the officials meeting face to face in person (interpreters permitted), or indirect, with both delegations physically present in the same facility, venue, or city for a single organized round of talks and an intermediary authorized by both governments relaying communications between them on the same calendar day in the meeting location's local time. The meeting must be mediated by China, meaning the Chinese government hosts or convenes it, or a Chinese government official (for example Foreign Minister Wang Yi or Special Envoy Zhai Jun) takes part as a mediator or intermediary between the two delegations. A meeting mediated only by other parties, or one that Chinese officials merely observe or attend without a mediating role, does not qualify. Proposing, encouraging, or initiating talks that another country hosts and mediates does not count as China convening them. Hosting a broader summit or conference alongside which the two sides meet does not by itself count as hosting the meeting. Phone or video contact, chance encounters, and exchanges limited to greetings, courtesies, or photo opportunities do not qualify, nor do the proceedings of standing international organizations or recurring multilateral summits such as the UN General Assembly. A separately arranged bilateral meeting held alongside such an event may qualify. A meeting does not qualify if either country is represented only by persons lacking authority to conduct diplomacy or negotiation on its behalf. The incidental presence of supporting staff does not by itself disqualify a meeting.
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