KalshiKullanılabilirliği kontrol etKYC gerekliDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiİyi kalibreSeçili emir defteri orta fiyatı
Democrats, 12+ pts · —
Seçili emir defteri yükleniyor…
Emir defteri alındı (platformun fiyat zamanı değil): —
Kayıtlı fiyat
Democrats, 12+ pts Kayıtlı alış–satış80%–86%Toplanma zamanı: Son işlem: 86% · İşlem zamanı bilinmiyorFiyatlar, ücretler öncesi ödemenin yüzdesidir; bu kayıtlı gözlemler işlem yapılabilir fiyat teklifleri değildir.9 seçenek arasında lider
Democrats, 12+ pts Kayıtlı alış–satış80%–86%Toplanma zamanı: Son işlem: 86% · İşlem zamanı bilinmiyorFiyatlar, ücretler öncesi ödemenin yüzdesidir; bu kayıtlı gözlemler işlem yapılabilir fiyat teklifleri değildir.Piyasa kalitesi
41 / 100
Düşük kalite24s Hacim
₺1,3 B
Açık pozisyon
₺76,6 B
Düşük açık pozisyonAlış / Satış
— / —
Democrats, 12+ ptsSpread
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Piyasa verileri
25 dakika önce güncellendi
14 Eyl 26 19:00 UTC3 Kas 27 14:00 UTC
Grafik ve değişimler, seçili canlı emir defterini değil kayıtlı geçmiş olasılıkları gösterir.
Trendler
Seçili satır: emir defteri orta fiyatı. Diğer satırlar: normalleştirilmiş olabilen kayıtlı referanslar; 24 saatlik değişimler kayıtlı geçmişi kullanır.
İşlem platformu koşulları
Kaynak: Kalshi
Bu koşullar yalnızca bilgi amaçlıdır; CoinRithm deneme işlemlerinde kendi kurallarını uygular.
- Erken kapanış:
- Evet
- Sonuçlandırma süresi:
- 30m (bilgi amaçlı)
Piyasa derinliği · Democrats, 12+ pts
Seçili emir defteri yükleniyor…
Emir defteri alındı (platformun fiyat zamanı değil): —
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Kurallar
If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in California by 21 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
Uzlaşma kaynağı:California Secretary of State
- The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Democratic Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Democratic Party will be summed. If the Democratic Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Democratic Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Democratic Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Democratic Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).
Her sonucun kuralı
- Democrats, 12+ pts
- If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in California by 12 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, 15+ pts
- If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in California by 15 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, 18+ pts
- If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in California by 18 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, 21+ pts
- If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in California by 21 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, 24+ pts
- If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in California by 24 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, 27+ pts
- If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in California by 27 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, 30+ pts
- If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in California by 30 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, 33+ pts
- If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in California by 33 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, 36+ pts
- If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in California by 36 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
Tahmin Kaynağı Karşılaştırması
- Polymarket üzerinde de mevcut — California Governor Election Margin of Victory · Becerra 25-30% 32%
