KalshiKapalıKullanılabilirliği kontrol etKYC gerekli%2 ücretDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreBu piyasa sonuçlandı: Reform UK, ≥15% (98%)
Sonuçlandı: 14 Ağu 2026 14:28
Sağlayıcı tarafından doğrulanmış sonuç
CoinRithm bu piyasa için kazanan ve sonuçlanma zamanı konusunda sağlayıcı destekli kanıta sahip.
Veri kalitesi uyarısıEski veriler
14 Ağu 2026 13:40 UTC itibarıyla veriler · politika pm-quality-3
Güncel ima edilen olasılık
Reform UK, ≥20% 99%+4.0pt16 seçenek arasında lider
Piyasa kalitesi
38 / 100
Düşük kalite24s Hacim
₺2,7 Mn
Likidite
₺5,6 Mn
Yüksek likiditePiyasa verileri
18 gün önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis7 Tem 26 23:008 Tem 27 14:00
Olasılık Zaman Çizelgesi
Reform UK, ≥50%52%
Reform UK, ≥45%5%
Reform UK, ≥60%27%
Reform UK, ≥65%15%
Reform UK, ≥70%6%
99%
99%
99%
99%
99%
99%
98%
6%
5%
3%
2%
2%
1%
1%
1%
1%
Kurallar
If the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election falls within 5% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
Uzlaşma kaynağı:Tendring District Council
- The margin of victory is the vote share received by Reform UK minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Reform UK if Reform UK wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Reform UK loses.
- If Reform UK wins, the margin will be positive; if Reform UK loses, the margin will be negative; if Reform UK ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.
- Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied.
- For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range.
- If Reform UK runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.
