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11 Kas 2026 18:32 UTC itibarıyla veriler · politika pm-quality-4
Seçili emir defteri orta fiyatı
Before Jan 1, 2028 · —
Seçili emir defteri yükleniyor…
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Kayıtlı fiyat
Before Jan 1, 2028 56.5%3 seçenek arasında lider
Before Jan 1, 2028 56.5%Piyasa kalitesi
35 / 100
Düşük kalite24s Hacim
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Açık pozisyon
$1,3 B
Düşük açık pozisyonAlış / Satış
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Before Jan 1, 2028Spread
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Piyasa verileri
47 dakika önce güncellendi
Gecikmeli17 Eyl 26 00:00 UTC1 Oca 27 04:59 UTC
Grafik ve değişimler, seçili canlı emir defterini değil kayıtlı geçmiş olasılıkları gösterir.
Trendler
Seçili satır: emir defteri orta fiyatı. Diğer satırlar: normalleştirilmiş olabilen kayıtlı referanslar; 24 saatlik değişimler kayıtlı geçmişi kullanır.
İşlem platformu koşulları
Kaynak: Kalshi
Bu koşullar yalnızca bilgi amaçlıdır; CoinRithm deneme işlemlerinde kendi kurallarını uygular.
- Erken kapanış:
- Evet
- Sonuçlandırma süresi:
- 30m (bilgi amaçlı)
Piyasa derinliği · Before Jan 1, 2028
Seçili emir defteri yükleniyor…
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İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will the US implement AI incident reporting requirements by 2028?
Manifold MarketsIf an AI incident kills 100+ before 2030, will the US enact binding pre-deployment evals within 18 months?
Manifold MarketsIf the US does not enact binding pre-deployment evals before 2030, will an AI incident kill 1,000+ by 2036?
Manifold MarketsIf ≥8 orgs are within 10x of frontier compute in 2030, will an AI incident kill 1,000+ people by 2036?
Manifold MarketsWill the SAVE Act become law?
KalshiHow many reconciliation bills will become law from Nov 25, 2025 to Dec 31, 2026?
KalshiKurallar
If federal legislation requiring serious AI-incident reporting has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- A qualifying federal law must require external reporting of serious incidents or dangerous near misses involving AI models or systems. This includes events causing or threatening serious physical, economic, environmental, privacy, or security harm, as well as significant loss of control or compromise of model security. The law's reporting trigger or definitions must identify serious, critical, material, significant, or catastrophic incidents, or set a harm or risk threshold excluding routine low-impact events. A broader reporting duty qualifies if it includes such a defined category. Confidential reports to an authority or designated external recipient and public disclosure both qualify. Internal reporting alone, voluntary programs, routine errors, and capability or risk assessments without an incident or dangerous near miss do not qualify. A general cybersecurity reporting law without an AI-specific reporting duty does not qualify. A later effective date does not delay qualification. An example of this is the FRONTIER Act (H.R. 9925).
Her sonucun kuralı
- Before Jan 1, 2028
- If federal legislation requiring serious AI-incident reporting has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jul 1, 2027
- If federal legislation requiring serious AI-incident reporting has become law after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2027
- If federal legislation requiring serious AI-incident reporting has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.