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This market resolves to "Yes" if, on or before 31 Dec 2026 (23:59:59 UTC), Polymarket ceases to rely on the UMA protocol as an integral component of its platform operations.
- UMA (Universal Market Access) is an Ethereum-based protocol that enables the creation of decentralized financial contracts, including synthetic assets and oracle-based event contracts, and has been used to settle and secure Polymarket’s event markets.
- Stop using UMA means that Polymarket announces, documents, or implements a migration of its oracle and settlement mechanisms away from UMA to another protocol or proprietary infrastructure, such that UMA is no longer the live production mechanism for resolving markets or securing trades.
- Partial testing of alternatives, dual use in staging/beta, or minor adjustments while UMA remains the production backbone do not count.
- Primary Designated Source (PDS): official technical documentation and announcements from Polymarket and UMA (including protocol updates, integration/deprecation notices, or audits showing UMA is not in use).
- Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM): If PDS is unavailable or ambiguous, Futuur may rely on consistent confirmation from at least two reputable blockchain analytics firms or industry media (e.g., CoinDesk, The Block, Decrypt) showing Polymarket no longer routes market settlement through UMA.
