Which 2026 Senate race will be the closest?
3.0 ptn (24u)PolitiekOne-OffAmerikaanse politiekVerkiezing1j
PredictItBeschikbaarheid controlerenKYC vereistNiet-geverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRetail prediction exchange
Huidige impliciete kans
Iowa 19%+3.0ptKoploper van 9 uitkomsten
Iowa 19%+3.0ptMethodologie
Retail prediction exchange
Vraagtype
-
24u volume
€ 102,4
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 1 minuut geleden
18 aug 26, 14:06 UTC16 dec 27, 05:00 UTC
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Regels
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the 2026 Senate election, among those listed in this market, that is won by the smallest percentage margin of the popular vote between the first-place and second-place candidates.
- Should a state reallocate votes under a ranked-choice voting system, this market shall be resolved according to the popular vote count of the last reported round.
- Should any election go to a second round, this market shall be resolved according to the results from that second round.
All listed contracts refer to regularly scheduled general election races.
The margin of victory shall be calculated by using the difference between the percentage of votes for the first place winner and the percentage of votes for the second place winner. - Percentages of the popular vote shall be determined by dividing the number of votes won by each candidate over the total of votes for all ballot-listed candidates and write-ins officially reported.
- In a ranked-choice election, only votes that are active in the last round reported shall be considered.
Should the most specific data available indicate a tie between two or more contests, this market will resolve in favor of the first alphabetical state among those so tied.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. - Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.