Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingJa 66.3%
Voorspellers
49
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 9 uur geleden
Verouderd7 jan 23, 07:06 UTC1 jan 00, 08:00 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will there be a relatively self-sustaining extraterrestial colony before 2050?
Manifold MarketsSelf-sustaining automated global economy by 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill the first self-sustaining base on Mars begin being established within 20 years as Elon Musk says?
Manifold MarketsTesla Full Self-Driving approved for use in Germany in what year?
Manifold MarketsWill ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
KalshiRegels
In order to count as "full self driving", it must be at least as safe as a normal, reasonably cautious human driver averaging over all situations, proportional to their likelyhood.
- In other words, assuming I'm an average driver (and not drunk, etc.) and am not irrationally scared of self-driving cars, I would feel no less safe saying "drive from my house in Florida to this hotel in Atlanta" than I would doing the drive myself.
- Must be available to the public, but doesn't have to be cheap.
- In order to count as "self-sustaining fusion", it needs to either:
- Actually be self-sustaining; i.e. they could turn off power to the reactor and it would keep going.
- Output no less electricity than it took in, even if that electricity is not what's being used to power the reactor.
