Will US translator jobs stay stable based on 2026 data (likely to be published Q1 2027)?
QuarterlyBusiness & CorporateMacro & Economy6mndManifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingJa 60.7%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Bijgewerkt 16 uur geleden
Verouderd31 aug 26, 15:27 UTC31 mrt 27, 23:59 UTC
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Manifold MarketsRegels
US employment of human translators is “more or less stable, and is projected to remain stable over the next decade" (see Arvind Narayanan's ICML keynote: https://www.cs.princeton.edu/~arvindn/talks/icml-2026-annotated-slides/#s25).
- BLS data reflects this, US gov expects a slight growth of translator jobs in coming years.
- It would probably take 2 years to resolve this bet optimally - BLS data only comes out yearly, and over the last ten years, the total jobs number for this sector fluctates ~ 5% a year.
- The bet: BLS Current Population Survey annual-average U.S. employment in “Interpreters and translators” for 2026 will be at least 89,000.
- The bet resolves when BLS publishes the 2026 annual-average table.
- I chose 89,000 because it's an ~8% decline from 2025’s 97,000.
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will US translator jobs stay stable based on 2026 data (likely to be published Q1 2027)??
- Manifold Markets prijst Yes op 61% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will US translator jobs stay stable based on 2026 data (likely to be published Q1 2027)? afgewikkeld?
- Will US translator jobs stay stable based on 2026 data (likely to be published Q1 2027)? wordt naar verwachting op 31 maart 2027 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will US translator jobs stay stable based on 2026 data (likely to be published Q1 2027)? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: US employment of human translators is “more or less stable, and is projected to remain stable over the next decade" (see Arvind Narayanan's ICML keynote: https://www.cs.princeton.edu/~arvindn/talks/icml-2026-annotated-slides/#s25).