Will Trump "Sell Out" Taiwan Under Rubio's State Department
PolitiekOne-OffUS PoliticsGeopolitiekChina2j
Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling
Nee 67.8%
Voorspellers
17
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 13 uur geleden
Verouderd8 nov 24, 00:34 UTC21 jan 29, 07:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
How many Gold Cards will Trump sell in 2026?
Polymarketwill the US department of state issue surveillance-related travel warnings to people who visit china by EOY2028??
Manifold MarketsWill the Department of Defense be renamed the Department of War by law in 2026?
KalshiWill "Dispatch from Anthropic v. Department of War ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump mention the Deltarune References that the Department of War has made?
Manifold MarketsWhat countries will Marco Rubio visit in 2026?
KalshiRegels
Will the Trump administration take specific actions undermining support for Taiwan during Trump's term (January 20, 2025 - January 20, 2029), with Marco Rubio as Secretary of State?
- Resolution Criteria
- This market will resolve YES if ANY of the following occur during Trump's presidency with Rubio as Secretary of State:
- Official Policy Changes:
- Formal recognition of PRC sovereignty over Taiwan
- Explicit withdrawal of previous US security commitments to Taiwan
Open markten
PoliticsKALSHINH-01 Democratic nominee?
- Stefany Shaheen+81.8pt100%
- Maura Sullivan-81.6pt0%
- Carleigh Beriont-2.7pt0%
- Totaal volume
- € 957,3K
- 24u volume
- € 760,7K
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17.2%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16.2%
- Gavin Newsom-1.0pt13.1%
+45 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 183,7 mln.
- 24u volume
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-3.0pt52.5%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+2.9pt45.5%
- Renan Santos1%
+16 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+2.0pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-1.3pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.6pt3%
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio+0.2pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen-0.2pt37.1%
- Édouard Philippe32%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon12.4%
+38 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- NJ-07 House winner?
- IA-01 House winner?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will Trump "Sell Out" Taiwan Under Rubio's State Department?
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 68% per 9 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will Trump "Sell Out" Taiwan Under Rubio's State Department afgewikkeld?
- Will Trump "Sell Out" Taiwan Under Rubio's State Department wordt naar verwachting op 21 januari 2029 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will Trump "Sell Out" Taiwan Under Rubio's State Department afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Will the Trump administration take specific actions undermining support for Taiwan during Trump's term (January 20, 2025 - January 20, 2029), with Marco Rubio as Secretary of State?