Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 65.3%
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14
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 9 minuten geleden
17 sep 26, 04:52 UTC30 apr 27, 04:51 UTC
Trends
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Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will "[Fiction] [Comic] Effective Altruism and Rati..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill the effective altruism movement be more popular at close (2027) than as of market creation (2022)?
Manifold MarketsWill Effective Altruism noticably segregate into multiple movements within this decade?
Manifold MarketsWhat will Trump say in September?
KalshiWhat will Trump say during the United Nations General Assembly?
KalshiWhat will Trump say during his Rose Garden dinner?
KalshiRegels
Resolutiecriteria zijn nog niet beschikbaar voor deze markt. Deze sectie wordt na komende verversingen gevuld zodra de bronregels zijn opgeslagen.
Open markten
US Politics
POLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- No change-10.0pt52.9%
- 25 bps increase+10.0pt45.1%
- 25 bps decrease-1.9pt1%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 4,9 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 2,7 mln.
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No-2.2pt93%
- Yes+2.2pt7%
- Totaal volume
- € 18,7 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 551,6K
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party+3.0pt88.1%
- Republican Party-2.0pt11.9%
- Totaal volume
- € 27,6 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 549,5K
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez18%
- Gavin Newsom-0.1pt16%
- Jon Ossoff+0.2pt16%
+48 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIWill Trump publicly criticize Kevin Warsh?
- Before Jan 1, 2027-5.0pt39%
- Before Dec 1, 202631.7%
- Before Nov 1, 202617.9%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 462,4K
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Democrats sweep+3.0pt56%
- D-House, R-Senate32%
- Republicans sweep-3.0pt11%
+1 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 12,9 mln.
- 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?
- Presidential Election Winner 2028
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- Nebraska Senate winner?
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Will the SAVE Act become law?
- Which party will win the U.S. Senate?
- Texas Senate winner?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Maine Senate winner?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will trump say or write "effective altruism"??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 65% per 17 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will trump say or write "effective altruism"? afgewikkeld?
- Will trump say or write "effective altruism"? wordt naar verwachting op 30 april 2027 afgewikkeld.