Will Trump be removed or resign from office if he uses military force against Greenland?
PolitiekGeopolitiekOne-OffAmerikaanse politiek2j
Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 69.4%
Voorspellers
102
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 15 uur geleden
Verouderd18 jan 26, 11:47 UTC20 jan 29, 11:59 UTC
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Will Trump be removed or resign from office before 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump be removed from office before January 20th of 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill USA use military force to take control over either Greenland, Canada or the Panama Canal before 2029?
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KalshiWill Nancy Pelosi resign her office before the midterms?
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KalshiRegels
Resolves YES if Trump deploys U.S. military forces to Greenland without Danish/Greenlandic consent in an attempt to establish control over any portion of its territory, AND leaves office before January 20, 2029 via:
- Impeachment and Senate conviction, OR
- Resolves NO if he deploys such forces and completes his term (or leaves due to e.g. death or incapacitation)
- Resolves N/A if no unauthorized military deployment to Greenland occurs.
- Update 2026-01-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Removal via military coup or other non-constitutional means would resolve NO.
- The market specifically tracks removal through constitutional accountability (impeachment/conviction) or political pressure (resignation) only.
