Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 88.7%
Voorspellers
20
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 4 uur geleden
Verouderd8 sep 23, 13:11 UTC1 jan 29, 07:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will Trump be held liable for January 6th in any court?
KalshiHow much time will Jair Bolsonaro spend in jail (not house arrest) by Dec 31, 2031?
Manifold MarketsHow many majors will Tiger Woods win before he dies?
Manifold MarketsWill Xi Jinping visit the US again before he dies?
Manifold MarketsArrest of any of Lula's ministers in 2026?
FutuurArrest of any of Jair Bolsonaro's sons in 2026?
FutuurRegels
The status of these two markets:
- https://manifold.markets/MartinRandall/when-will-trump-be-imprisoned
- https://manifold.markets/Duncn/will-trump-spend-any-time-in-prison
- imply that the market has a substantial chunk of its probability mass on Trump going under house arrest.
- The status of this market https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-trump-be-held-under-house-arre confirms this (though currently it is inconsistent with the "when will trump be imprisoned" market).
- This market resolves YES if Donald J. Trump is held under house arrest in the United States.
Open markten
US Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 605,6 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 693K
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 603,1 mln.
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+1.4pt96%
- $25M+2.0pt94%
- $50M+5.0pt90%
+4 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 extra uitkomsten
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance44.1%
- Marco Rubio20.6%
- Ron DeSantis4.9%
+35 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 54,7 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 266,9K
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Totaal volume
- € 12,5 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 248,7K
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- NJ-07 House winner?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
- IA-01 House winner?
- Which states will redistrict before the midterms?
- 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will Trump be held under house arrest before he dies??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 89% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will Trump be held under house arrest before he dies? afgewikkeld?
- Will Trump be held under house arrest before he dies? wordt naar verwachting op 1 januari 2029 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will Trump be held under house arrest before he dies? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: The status of these two markets: