Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 89.7%
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Bijgewerkt 8 uur geleden
Verouderd2 apr 26, 15:04 UTC31 dec 26, 23:59 UTC
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PolymarketRegels
Will there be an assassination attempt on JD Vance before the end of 2026? In addition to death or injury, this also includes a clearly documented attempt from which Vance escapes unharmed.
- Update 2026-04-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is not yet resolving this market following an incident at the White House Correspondents' Dinner.
- The creator believes Trump was more likely the intended target rather than Vance, and will wait for investigation results before resolving YES or NO.
- Update 2026-04-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will not resolve YES based on the April 25, 2026 White House Correspondents' Dinner incident.
- The attacker's manifesto targeted "Administration officials" by rank, with Trump as the primary target — Vance was not specifically or individually targeted.
- The creator is applying a narrow interpretation: a general threat against a group does not trigger a person-specific assassination attempt market.
Open markten
US PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 605,7 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 695,7K
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 603,2 mln.
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.4pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+9.8pt96%
- $25M+15.5pt94%
- $50M+31.5pt86%
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KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party84.2%
- Republican Party15.8%
- Totaal volume
- € 24,3 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 294,7K
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance44.7%
- Marco Rubio20.4%
- Ron DeSantis3.9%
+35 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 54,7 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 291,3K
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will there be an assassination attempt on JD Vance before the end of 2026??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 90% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will there be an assassination attempt on JD Vance before the end of 2026? afgewikkeld?
- Will there be an assassination attempt on JD Vance before the end of 2026? wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2026 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will there be an assassination attempt on JD Vance before the end of 2026? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Will there be an assassination attempt on JD Vance before the end of 2026? In addition to death or injury, this also includes a clearly documented attempt from which Vance escapes unharmed.