Will the US or Israel strike Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain nuclear site before Oct 1, 2027?
CommoditiesOne-OffMiddle EastGeopolitiekPolitiekSpaceUS Politics1jManifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 50.3%
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7
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binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
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Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 5 uur geleden
Verouderd9 sep 26, 16:27 UTC30 sep 27, 23:59 UTC
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- [link preview]Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, between market creation and October 1, 2027, at 11:59 PM UTC, the United States military or the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) conduct a confirmed kinetic military strike (e.g., airstrikes, missile strikes, or drone attacks) targeting Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain underground facility (also known in Farsi as Kuh-e Kolang Gaz La, located approximately 2 kilometers south of the Natanz uranium enrichment complex).
- This market resolves to NO if no such strike occurs by the deadline.
- Additional Conditions and Clarifications:
- Attribution: The strike must be publicly claimed by, attributed to, or widely acknowledged by officials from the US, Israeli, or Iranian governments, or confirmed by credible international news agencies (such as Reuters, Associated Press, CNN, BBC, or The New York Times).
