Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will the U.S. interstate-trade backbone survive COVID? (H2-P, 2017→2022)?

Manifold Markets prijst No op 56% per 9 augustus 2026.

Will the U.S. interstate-trade backbone survive COVID? (H2-P, 2017→2022)

MiningOne-Off

Manifold MarketsGeslotenGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerd

Deze markt is beslist: Yes (43.7%)

Afgewikkeld: 8 aug 2026, 13:42

Door provider geverifieerde afwikkeling

CoinRithm heeft provider-onderbouwd bewijs voor de winnaar en afwikkelingstijd van deze markt.

Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling

Nee 56.3%

Voorspellers

Vraagtype

binary

Methodologie

Play-money forecasting platform

Brontype

Voorspelling

Marktdata

Bijgewerkt 12 dagen geleden

Verouderd

14 jul 26, 13:077 aug 26, 21:00

Trends

Nee

56.3%

43.7%

Regels

Pre-registered forecast from The Interstate Power Observatory (ResearchHub proposal #32374).

Thresholds were locked before any cross-year number was computed, committed publicly with SHA-256 cd25810026b8053aad446aa0a6e3a3050642c1cf492d988dc02e3db185bc30e1 (repo: github.com/rsthornton/us-trade-centrality).
Resolution is mechanical: computed by deterministic scripted code on public federal CFS data (2017 → 2022), against the registered criterion below.
The creator will not bet in this market and resolves to the published verdict table.
Resolves YES iff Jaccard similarity of the backbone edge sets (top third of edges by value) ≥ 0.80.
Proposal: https://www.researchhub.com/proposal/32374/the-interstate-power-observatory-a-pre-registered-forecast-of-us-trade-network-centrality-20122022 Dashboard: tradeflows.halcyonic.systems

Will the U.S. interstate-trade backbone survive COVID? (H2-P, 2017→2022)

MiningOne-Off

Manifold MarketsGeslotenGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerd

Deze markt is beslist: Yes (43.7%)

Afgewikkeld: 8 aug 2026, 13:42

Door provider geverifieerde afwikkeling

CoinRithm heeft provider-onderbouwd bewijs voor de winnaar en afwikkelingstijd van deze markt.

Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling

Nee 56.3%

Voorspellers

Vraagtype

binary

Methodologie

Play-money forecasting platform

Brontype

Voorspelling

Marktdata

Bijgewerkt 12 dagen geleden

Verouderd

14 jul 26, 13:077 aug 26, 21:00

Trends

Nee

56.3%

43.7%

Regels

Pre-registered forecast from The Interstate Power Observatory (ResearchHub proposal #32374).

Thresholds were locked before any cross-year number was computed, committed publicly with SHA-256 cd25810026b8053aad446aa0a6e3a3050642c1cf492d988dc02e3db185bc30e1 (repo: github.com/rsthornton/us-trade-centrality).
Resolution is mechanical: computed by deterministic scripted code on public federal CFS data (2017 → 2022), against the registered criterion below.
The creator will not bet in this market and resolves to the published verdict table.
Resolves YES iff Jaccard similarity of the backbone edge sets (top third of edges by value) ≥ 0.80.
Proposal: https://www.researchhub.com/proposal/32374/the-interstate-power-observatory-a-pre-registered-forecast-of-us-trade-network-centrality-20122022 Dashboard: tradeflows.halcyonic.systems

Veelgestelde vragen

Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will the U.S. interstate-trade backbone survive COVID? (H2-P, 2017→2022)?: Manifold Markets prijst No op 56% per 9 augustus 2026.
Wanneer wordt Will the U.S. interstate-trade backbone survive COVID? (H2-P, 2017→2022) afgewikkeld?: Will the U.S. interstate-trade backbone survive COVID? (H2-P, 2017→2022) wordt naar verwachting op 7 augustus 2026 afgewikkeld.
Hoe wordt Will the U.S. interstate-trade backbone survive COVID? (H2-P, 2017→2022) afgewikkeld?: Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Pre-registered forecast from The Interstate Power Observatory (ResearchHub proposal #32374).

Will the U.S. interstate-trade backbone survive COVID? (H2-P, 2017→2022)

Will the U.S. interstate-trade backbone survive COVID? (H2-P, 2017→2022)

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