Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingFully fair 65%Koploper van 5 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
34
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 5 uur geleden
Verouderd8 nov 24, 03:42 UTC1 jan 27, 06:59 UTC
Trends
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This market depends on the opinions of international election observers like the OSCE and historically-friendly governments to the US, like those of Great Britain, France, Germany, Japan, Australia, and the like.
- (The claims of countries generally considered geopolitical adversaries, like China or Russia, won't matter for the purposes of this market.)
- This market resolves to "the named outcome" if:
- More than 3/4 of election observers characterize the US federal elections of 2026 as fundamentally free and fair, at least to the same extent as the elections of 2020, 2022, and 2024.
- An objection like the electoral college or the non-proportionality of Senate representation will not prevent the market from resolving "yes", any objection must be unique to the 2026 election.
Open markten
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 606,3 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 721K
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio+1.0pt20%
- Tucker Carlson+0.1pt3%
+39 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-1.0pt55.5%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+2.5pt42.6%
- Renan Santos-0.1pt1%
+16 extra uitkomsten
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff16.5%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez15.5%
- Gavin Newsom13.6%
+45 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 183,4 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 411,2K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+4.0pt73%
- New People (NL)-2.5pt23%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.5pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen-1.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+1.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 extra uitkomsten
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- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
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- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will the US have free and fair federal elections in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prijst Fully fair op 65% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will the US have free and fair federal elections in 2026? afgewikkeld?
- Will the US have free and fair federal elections in 2026? wordt naar verwachting op 1 januari 2027 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will the US have free and fair federal elections in 2026? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: This market depends on the opinions of international election observers like the OSCE and historically-friendly governments to the US, like those of Great Britain, France, Germany, Japan, Australia, and the like.