Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?
GrondstoffenOne-OffPolitiekAmerikaanse politiekGeopolitiekMidden-OostenRusland / OekraïneChinaTech3j
Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdWaarschuwing datakwaliteitBrongegevens verslechterd
Gegevens van 25 okt 2026, 23:50 UTC · beleid pm-quality-4
Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 81.8%
Voorspellers
16
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 57 minuten geleden
Vertraagd1 mrt 26, 04:06 UTC31 dec 29, 23:59 UTC
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Manifold MarketsRegels
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves YES if the United States formally recognizes the People's Republic of China's sovereignty over Taiwan and terminates its unofficial relations with Taiwan, including ending military support and defense cooperation under the Taiwan Relations Act.
- This would constitute a formal diplomatic concession of Taiwan to the PRC.
- This market also resolves YES if Taiwan becomes formally incorporated into the PRC under an arrangement analogous to Hong Kong's "one country, two systems" framework — including scenarios where Taiwan retains nominal autonomy, a separate economic zone, or continued semiconductor exports to the US — provided that the US formally accepts PRC sovereignty over Taiwan and ends its defense commitments.
- The market resolves NO if the US maintains any form of unofficial military relations with Taiwan, continues arms sales, or preserves defense cooperation frameworks in opposition to China through 2029.
- The market also resolves NO if Taiwan is acquired by the PRC through a military invasion.
