Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 85.7%
Voorspellers
28
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 7 uur geleden
Verouderd7 mrt 26, 15:58 UTC31 jul 29, 10:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will a 250-foot triumphal arch be built across from the Lincoln Memorial before Trump leaves office?
Manifold MarketsWill China invade the main island of Taiwan before Trump leaves office?
Manifold MarketsWill China invade the Kinmen Islands of Taiwan before Trump leaves office?
Manifold MarketsWill the US officially declare war on Iran by which date?
PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
PolymarketRegels
At war includes:
- US troops on the ground in Iran
- Ongoing strikes by either side
- Strait of Hormuz closed to most traffic, and US Naval forces in the area
- Routine US overflights or Iran, such as an enforced no-fly zone
- This is based on the status at the time Trump leaves office, not before; if the war pauses and then resumes and is ongoing when Trump leaves, this will resolve Yes, pause notwithstanding.
Open markten
US PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 605,7 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 695,7K
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 603,2 mln.
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.4pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+9.8pt96%
- $25M+15.5pt94%
- $50M+31.5pt86%
+4 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party84.2%
- Republican Party15.8%
- Totaal volume
- € 24,3 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 294,7K
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance44.7%
- Marco Rubio20.4%
- Ron DeSantis3.9%
+35 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 54,7 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 291,3K
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Trump renames New Mexico to New America by which date?
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will the US be at war with Iran when Trump leaves office??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 86% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will the US be at war with Iran when Trump leaves office? afgewikkeld?
- Will the US be at war with Iran when Trump leaves office? wordt naar verwachting op 31 juli 2029 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will the US be at war with Iran when Trump leaves office? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: At war includes: