Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensGoed gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling2044 6.8%Koploper van 6 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
13
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 6 uur geleden
Verouderd9 apr 26, 18:05 UTC31 dec 48, 18:53 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will Gavin Newsom run for President in the 2028 election?
Manifold MarketsVance announces he won't run for President in 2028 this year?
PolymarketWill Rubio and Vance run for President?
KalshiWhich of these Democrats will be the first to announce a run for President?
PolymarketWill Jon Ossoff announce a run for President before 2028?
PredictItWill Bernie Sanders run for President in 2028?
KalshiRegels
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve "Yes" for a specific election year option if Pope Leo XIV formally registers as a candidate for the office of President of the United States with the Federal Election Commission (FEC).
- If Leo XIV (born Robert Prevost in Chicago, 1955) resigned, returned to the US, and ran (e.g., in 2028), he meets Article II requirements (natural-born citizen, 35+, 14-year residency).
- No precedent exists, but it’s legally possible post-resignation.