Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensGoed gekalibreerdWaarschuwing datakwaliteitVerouderde gegevens
Gegevens van 29 okt 2026, 14:08 UTC · beleid pm-quality-4
Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 92.9%
Voorspellers
16
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt gisteren
Verouderd23 mrt 26, 11:51 UTC24 apr 27, 23:59 UTC
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PolymarketRegels
Resolution criteria
- The election will be held in April 2027, with a second round two weeks later if no candidate secures a majority vote.
- The market resolves YES if the winner of the 2027 French presidential election is a member of the Parti Socialiste (PS).
- Resolution will be based on official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
- Relations between France Insoumise and the Parti Socialiste are at rock bottom, with PS First Secretary Olivier Faure stating there will be no national pact with France Insoumise in the 2027 presidential elections.
- Several leftist groups have announced a primary in October 2026 to pick a united left candidate under the banner 'Front Populaire', with representatives from the Parti Socialiste, the Greens, and the Communists participating.