Will the New York Times positively cover Allan Lichtman’s 13 Keys prediction in 2028?
PolitiekOne-OffAmerikaanse politiekVerkiezing2jManifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 77.1%
Voorspellers
7
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 57 minuten geleden
Vertraagd5 sep 24, 19:19 UTC13 nov 28, 07:59 UTC
Trends
Regels
The NYT recently put out an editorial with the dramatic title Harris or Trump? The Prophet of Presidential Elections Is Ready to Call the Race.
- It’s about a guy named Allan Lichtman who uses a silly overfit model to predict elections.
- Here’s Nate Silver’s takedown (from 2011!), and here’s a Manifold market on whether he’ll be “right” this year.
- (He thought Biden would win up until the bitter end, btw, but he thinks Harris has the advantage in the Keys now, and she may win or lose, of course.)
- In a perfect world, Lichtman wouldn’t get airtime, but alas, the NYT is covering him.
- (I haven’t checked whether they did in past years - this would be a good forecasting step.) Will they similarly positively cover the Keys in 2028?
