Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will the global dollar reserve share be lower than 55% by 1/1/2030??

Manifold Markets prijst Yes op 52.3% per 29 oktober 2026.

Will the global dollar reserve share be lower than 55% by 1/1/2030?

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24 apr 23, 16:42 UTC1 jan 30, 05:59 UTC

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Will the dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves be above 55% in the 2029 data release or before?

"Yes" argument: There are no remotely worthy successors.
The next most common reserve, the Euro, is likely in worse shape than the dollar.
"No" argument: "Proponents of [dollar] regime change point to the steady fall in the dollar’s share of central banks’ foreign exchange reserves.
That stood at around 59% in 2022, down from over 70% in 1999, according to the International Monetary Fund." - https://www.reuters.com/breakingviews/global-markets-breakingviews-2023-02-28/
Truth source will be IMF COFER survey data, or nearest equivalent if the IMF doesn't report on this by then.