Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will the climate heat up more than 3°C before 2050??

Manifold Markets prijst No op 81.6% per 27 oktober 2026.

Wanneer wordt Will the climate heat up more than 3°C before 2050? afgewikkeld?

Will the climate heat up more than 3°C before 2050? wordt naar verwachting op 2 januari 2050 afgewikkeld.

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Gegevens van 27 okt 2026, 03:40 UTC · beleid pm-quality-4

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2 feb 24, 05:45 UTC2 jan 50, 07:59 UTC

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Resolves positive if the long-run [20 year] global mean temperature average raises more than 3.0°C vs. the 1850-1900 average before 2100

Resolves negative otherwise
https://web.archive.org/web/20220518083042/https://library.wmo.int/doc_num.php?explnum_id=11178
If the temperature reaches the threshold, then falls back below that level the contract still resolves positive.
The temperature must heat more than the threshold in the title for the contract to resolve positive, to whatever precision reported.
So, if a reputable source gives the midpoint temperature increase as 3.01°C, the contrast will resolve positive, but not if the source lists 3.00°C. If the source uses a confidence interval, the contract will resolve based on the reported midpoint.