Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will the Arctic be ice-free in summer by the year 2050??

Manifold Markets prijst Yes op 73% per 29 oktober 2026.

Will the Arctic be ice-free in summer by the year 2050?

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Gegevens van 29 okt 2026, 14:16 UTC · beleid pm-quality-4

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Ja 73%

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23 apr 23, 12:06 UTC31 dec 50, 22:59 UTC

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This question will resolve as YES if the Arctic region experiences an ice-free summer by the year 2050.

An ice-free summer is defined as a period of at least five consecutive days during which the Arctic sea ice extent is less than one million square kilometers, as measured by the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).
The NSIDC uses a 30-year baseline (1981-2010) to calculate average sea ice extent, and an ice-free summer would represent a significant departure from this baseline.
The question will resolve as NO if the Arctic region does not experience an ice-free summer by the year 2050, or if the data is inconclusive.