Will Tesla obtain a permit to operate paid driverless robotaxis in CA from the CPUC by the end of 2026 [description]
TechOne-Off2mndManifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdWaarschuwing datakwaliteitBrongegevens verslechterd
Gegevens van 26 okt 2026, 07:03 UTC · beleid pm-quality-4
Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 96.3%
Voorspellers
13
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binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
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Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 10 uur geleden
Verouderd20 jan 26, 23:35 UTC31 dec 26, 23:59 UTC
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Manifold MarketsWill Tesla obtain an AV Driverless Testing or Deployment Permit from the CA DMV by the end of 2026
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Manifold MarketsWill Tesla run fully driverless robotaxis (no safety monitor) in 10+ US metros beyond Austin by Aug 1, 2027?
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KalshiRegels
https://www.cpuc.ca.gov/regulatory-services/licensing/transportation-licensing-and-analysis-branch/autonomous-vehicle-programs/autonomous-vehicle-program-permits-issued
- This question will resolve to YES if TESLA receives a DRIVERLESS DEPLOYMENT PERMIT under the CPUC's Autonomous Vehicle program, which is the final regulatory requirement to operate driverless robotaxis.
- This question will resolve NO at close time if TESLA has not obtained a DRIVERLESS DEPLOYMENT PERMIT according to the CPUC website/news reporting.
- At the time of market creation, TESLA has not obtained any AV permits, though they have obtained a permit to operate a TCP service (e.g. Uber, not permitted to use any self-driving tech)
