Will Susan Collins Outperform Maine's Republican Baseline in 2026?
QuarterlyAmerikaanse politiekVerkiezingPolitiek1mndManifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingJa 97%
Voorspellers
20
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 7 minuten geleden
17 mrt 25, 07:16 UTC1 dec 26, 07:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will Susan Collins (Maine) Outperform outperform Republicans by 10%?
Manifold MarketsWill Susan Collins be seen with Donald Trump before election day?
Manifold MarketsExcluding Susan Collins, will any Republican senate candidate get a higher percent of the vote than trump did in 2024?
Manifold MarketsWill Susan Collins win re-election to Maine's Senate seat in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Susan Collins win the Maine general election for US Senate in 2026?
ForecastExWill Graham Platner and Susan Collins debate?
KalshiRegels
Susan Collins is a Republican U.S. Senator from Maine who has served since 1997.
- She has historically outperformed typical Republican candidates in Maine, positioning herself as a moderate in a state that leans Democratic overall.
- A January 2025 political science paper titled "The Electoral Consequences of Ideological Persuasion: Evidence from a Within-Precinct Analysis of U.S. Elections" by Bonica, Rhee, and Studen examines how candidate ideology affects vote share.
- The paper finds that a standard deviation change in ideological midpoint between candidates results in an average vote share penalty of 0.6 percentage points, with the authors concluding that "gains associated with ideological moderation are relatively modest and likely secondary to turnout effects."
- Matthew Yglesias has challenged this paper's conclusions, suggesting that moderates like Susan Collins consistently outperform their state's partisan baseline, contrary to the paper's findings that ideological moderation offers only modest electoral advantages.
- Resolution Criteria
