Will Super Heavy or Starship crash into the catching tower before 2030? (read description)
TechOne-OffRuimtevaart3j
Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingJa 50.9%
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6
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binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
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Voorspelling
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Bijgewerkt 8 uur geleden
Verouderd27 aug 25, 05:59 UTC31 dec 29, 23:59 UTC
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A crash is defined as either the first or second stage making contact with the tower or the chopstick during a catch attempt and then coming to rest in any other orientation than the two catching support structures (pins or fins) resting on the chopsticks.
- I have chosen this somewhat specific definition because I am concerned it may be hard to distinguish between a rough catch and a small crash.
- Betting in this market should be undertaken with the knowledge that some things that look like crashes might not qualify.
- At the time of writing, I am making the assumption that neither stage will have a protocol to abort a catch after initial contact is made.
- If that assumption is shown to be wrong by credible sources, I will NA this market.
- However, if the first indication that such an abort mode exists is a real life demonstration of it, this market will resolve to YES.
