Will Starship’s upper stage be caught successfully on SpaceX’s first attempt?
TechOne-OffRuimtevaart2mnd
Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensGoed gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingJa 63%
Voorspellers
34
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 15 uur geleden
Verouderd11 feb 26, 03:50 UTC31 dec 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Chopsticks catch a Starship upper stage by which date?
PolymarketWill an Artemis mission launch with a Centaur V upper stage?
Manifold MarketsBy when will the Exploration Upper Stage launch?
Manifold MarketsLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketHow many launches will SpaceX have in October?
KalshiWhich company has the best AI model end of November?
PolymarketRegels
Resolution criteria
- The market resolves YES if SpaceX successfully catches Starship's upper stage using the Mechazilla tower's "chopstick" arms on their first attempt.
- An attempted catch is defined as any Starship, once having reached orbit, passing a mission milestone where it commits irreversibly to a deorbit trajectory with the possibility and intent of a catch.
- I.E. a deorbit burn targeting the boca chica launch site.
- Any diversion here after would result in a No resolution.
- (Added 08/26/26)