Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will SpaceX send a Starship to Mars before 2030??

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Wanneer wordt Will SpaceX send a Starship to Mars before 2030? afgewikkeld?

Will SpaceX send a Starship to Mars before 2030? wordt naar verwachting op 1 januari 2030 afgewikkeld.

Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: "To Mars" just means that the target of the mission is, in some meaningful sense, the planet Mars.

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3 nov 25, 06:02 UTC1 jan 30, 23:59 UTC

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"To Mars" just means that the target of the mission is, in some meaningful sense, the planet Mars.

It doesn't have to be a landing; an orbit around the planet or a close flyby also qualify.
However simply going out past Mars's orbital distance from the sun, while not actually approaching the planet itself, does not count.
"Send" means that the rocket actually started on its mission.
A mission that is simply scheduled for the future does not count.
A mission that lifts off and then blows up 2 feet above the launch pad still counts.