Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 71.8%
Voorspellers
26
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 4 uur geleden
Verouderd1 aug 26, 14:44 UTC31 dec 29, 23:59 UTC
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Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Situational Awareness raises new capital by which date?
PolymarketSituational Awareness announces fund wind-down by which date?
PolymarketWill Situational Awareness LP raise fresh capital after its July 2026 unwind?
Manifold MarketsWill Citadel start a prediction market making desk by the midterms?
Manifold Markets$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
PolymarketCalifornia FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026
KalshiRegels
[tweet]Resolves per net AUM (investor capital, not regulatory/leveraged AUM), matching the tweet's intent.
- Compares Situational Awareness (incl. renames/successors managing substantially the same funds) vs. Citadel Advisors.
- Citadel Securities is a market maker with no AUM and doesn't factor in.
- Uses the latest figure for each firm dated on or before Dec 31, 2029, from company statements, regulatory filings, or credible financial press (Bloomberg/FT/WSJ/Reuters); both figures must be within 12 months of each other.
- If a net AUM figure is unavailable for either firm, Form ADV regulatory AUM is used for both.
- YES iff SA's figure strictly exceeds Citadel's.
Open markten
Business & CorporatePOLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+5.5pt96%
- $25M+8.5pt94%
- $50M+13.0pt87%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 351,4K
- 24u volume
- € 351,4K
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 40-64+6.0pt52%
- 65-89+24.5pt45.1%
- 90-114-2.5pt2.9%
+7 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETLargest Company end of December 2026?
- NVIDIA+1.0pt78.4%
- Apple+0.6pt13.7%
- Alphabet6.9%
+5 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 8 - September 15, 2026?
- 180-199-1.0pt18.2%
- 200-21918.2%
- 160-179+1.0pt14.1%
+23 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIWashington aerospace manufacturing employment average in 2026
- Above 80,000 jobs98%
- Above 81,000 jobs95%
- Above 82,000 jobs+3.0pt92%
+10 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 183,7K
POLYMARKETLargest Company end of September?
- NVIDIA+0.3pt98%
- Apple-0.3pt2%
- Alphabet0%
+6 extra uitkomsten
- Boeing commercial airplane deliveries in 2026
- Illinois nuclear electricity generation in 2026
- California FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026
- Elon Musk # of tweets in September 2026?
- 3rd Largest Company end of September?
- Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Predict.fun FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- First to hit $1B FDV: ANSEM, CASHCAT, AI, or NET?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will Situational Awareness be bigger than Citadel by EOY 2029??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 72% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will Situational Awareness be bigger than Citadel by EOY 2029? afgewikkeld?
- Will Situational Awareness be bigger than Citadel by EOY 2029? wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2029 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will Situational Awareness be bigger than Citadel by EOY 2029? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: [tweet]Resolves per net AUM (investor capital, not regulatory/leveraged AUM), matching the tweet's intent.