Will Section 4 of the 25th Amendment be invoked before Inauguration Day 2029?
PolitiekOne-OffAmerikaanse politiek2jManifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdWaarschuwing datakwaliteitBrongegevens verslechterd
Gegevens van 25 okt 2026, 20:15 UTC · beleid pm-quality-4
Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 87.7%
Voorspellers
15
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 2 uur geleden
Verouderd2 sep 24, 21:08 UTC20 jan 29, 16:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will Section 4 of the 25th Amendment be invoked against Donald Trump by his VP and cabinet during his second term?
Manifold MarketsWill the 25th Amendment be invoked as to transfer presidential authority from Trump?
Manifold MarketsWill Section IV of the 25th Amendment be used during Trump's Presidency?
KalshiWill President Trump be declared incapacitated under the 25th Amendment Section 4 during the 2025-2029 term?
Manifold MarketsWill the 14th Amendment to the US Constitution be altered or repealed before 2028?
Manifold MarketsTrump removed via 25th Amendment before 2027?
PolymarketRegels
Section 4 of the 25th Amendment provides, in relevant part, a process to declare the President unable to perform the duties of the office.
- If the Vice President and a majority of the Cabinet (or of another body as Congress may by law provide) submit a declaration to Congress, the Vice President immediately assumes the role of Acting President.
- When this declaration is transmitted to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives to Congress, the Vice President immediately assumes the role of Acting President.
- This market will resolve YES when this initial declaration is transmitted regardless of subsequent action (e.g. congressional overruling, judicial intervention, refusal of the president to step aside, etc.).
- The invocation of Section 3 will under no circumstances resolve this market to YES unless Section 4 is invoked after the invocation of Section 3.
- Any and all Constitutional questions will be resolved in accordance with the article linked here unless the Supreme Court issues a controlling opinion that is directly contrary to an opinion expressed in the article at least 6 weeks before the invocation of Section 4.