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Play-money forecasting platform
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Verouderd2 nov 22, 19:43 UTC2 dec 29, 05:59 UTC
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Will any USA state ban self driving cars by the end of 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill fully autonomous (level 5) self-driving cars be available in a major US city before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill self-driving cars become the primary mode of transportation in major US cities by 2030?
Manifold MarketsBy which year will there be self-driving cars in New York City?
Manifold MarketsBitcoin price at the end of 2026
KalshiBTC price on Oct 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiRegels
At the end of 2029, I will make an assessment of the total number of 4-wheel cars in the US, whether they be owned or leased by individuals, or whether they are still parts of experimental fleets from self-driving car companies.
- I will try to determine the total number of such cars that use some form of LIDAR, and if more than half do, this resolves YES.
- Otherwise, it resolves NO.
- Update for detail: What I am going for here is the sort of vehicles that Tesla, Waymo, Cruise etc. are making.
- Vehicles that are ostensibly designed to drive themselves (even if in terms of software, they might not be able to do that yet with 100% reliability).
- In terms of the level system, this maps on to about L3 and above.
